Planet VC

A Venture Capital Blog Aggregation

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November 21, 2008

Rick Segal

The B Word

Warning: You are going to hate this post.

Why do start-ups have bonuses in their budgets? What's up with that?  Let's roll back a bit and figure out what we collectively start with.

First, you come to me with a plan. You believe this plan is extraordinary and the idea, product, or service is amazing.  It is the next Google.  Fine. Let's assume I believe all this and not only drink the Kool-Aid but eat the packaging, cups, and pitcher you served it in.  I'm in. You are funded, baby, let's rock.

You've told me in year 1, 500k of revenue but year 2, Katy bar that damn door, good golly Miss Molly, it is 10x in revenue over year 1.  Amazing! So, why are you asking for a bonus if you met these objectives that you set out.

According to Dictionary.com, ‘bonus’ means ‘something given or paid over and above what is due or expected’. Said differently, it’s compensation for extraordinary performance.

By definition, what is “expected” or “due” of venture-backed companies is “extraordinary” growth. The whole idea of taking venture capital and putting it to use is to grow an enterprise well beyond any natural rates of growth. Accordingly, the basic compensation that a management team earns should be to compensate them for that extraordinary growth. Ordinary growth, even good growth, is less than what is due.  And growth, just so we are clear is not always measured in raw revenue so this isn't about a revenue to pay

Enter variable compensation.  This I love doing.  Give me a set of milestones and objectives you think can be done. Let's give you compensation and equity for doing that. Let's even let you share (equity) in the extraordinary growth of the company as you define it.  When you go above and beyond those targets, you can share and share big in my view.

Practically speaking, if the Hockey stick you tell me can happen is $5,000,000 in year two, excellent, let's comp you so you can avoid worrying too much about the home bills (thank you, Austin Hill) and the rest of it in equity and variable compensation when you go way above and beyond. You get a good/big piece when all the shareholders win.

When I point this out to start-ups, pre-revenue companies, etc, lots of people phreak.  

My advice when you are structuring your compensation packages is make them scream you believe. Think about it.  If you take no salary and all stock, you damn sure believe. The other end of that spectrum is all comp, "market rate" pay and bonuses for doing the job.  You will be somewhere on this spectrum one size doesn't fit all.

To me, it's about how much you believe. That was the B word: Believe.  Do you believe?

Okay, flame away but before you do, please read this again, slowly.  There is a larger point about you being committed and believing in the gig; not me making you go on food stamps.  Every situation is different but the beliefs have still gotta be there.

by Rick Segal at November 21, 2008 04:47 AM

Steve Jurvetson

Seahorse Ranch [Flickr]

jurvetson posted a photo:

Seahorse Ranch

I was very happy to ride a horse born on this seaside ranch. As soon as we got to the beach, she bolted straight to the ocean. I think I became invisible as we went for a magical trot through the surf.

Last time I went horseback riding was many moons ago on the beaches of Costa Rica, and a very amorous horse emerged from the jungle, on the lose, and spent the next half-hour trying to bust a move. It’s bizarre to be riding through attempted animal husbandry. They can be very persistent!

by jurvetson at November 21, 2008 03:02 AM

Mark Davis

What You Need To Know About Raising Venture Capital

I gave a speech to the Venture Association of New Jersey yesterday.  In the speech I highlighted many of the less well known themes that I have blogged about.  Much is lost without the voice over, but I thought I would share my slides anyway.  Enjoy.

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by Mark Davis at November 21, 2008 02:27 AM

November 20, 2008

Five Years Too late

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Eric Wiesen

Eric Wiesen

I’ve been on a few panels (and been in the audience for many more) that focus on starting up a company. A lot of the questions (unsurprisingly) are about starting up web companies and best practices around doing so. Inevitably, one question arises:

“How much does the name matter?”

What does surprise me is the answer I usually hear from VCs, successful entrepreneurs, and other luminaries:

“It doesn’t matter.”

They go on to say focus on your product, great customer experience, scalability and all the other important company-formation features. And I agree that those are all critical, first-order concerns. But I disagree that names don’t matter, at least where consumer-facing applications and services are concerned.

Businesses generally don’t care what things are called - they have the time and financial interest to due significant due diligence on various offerings (although truthfully it doesn’t always happen) and decisions are made around more metrics-oriented decision criteria. But consumers are a whole different ballgame. You need to grab a share of their increasingly overwhelmed and attention-deficit suffering consciousness. You need, to use a metaphor I like in many contexts, to be no or low-friction. And your name is the first thing they are going to see.

So I’d lay out three rules for naming a consumer-facing web product:

  1. Be easy to spell
  2. Be 8 characters or less
  3. Be in plain language

You don’t need all three. But you need the first and one of the last two to have a good web name. Looking at some of the top (US) consumer-facing websites, let’s see how they stack up:

Yahoo (Easy to spell, 5 characters, arguably plain language): 2.5/3 PASS
Google (Easy to spell, 6 characters): 2/3 PASS
YouTube (Easy to spell, 7 characters, plain language): 3/3 PASS
MySpace (Easy to spell, 7 characters, plain language): 3/3 PASS
Facebook (Easy to spell, 8 characters, plain language): 3/3 PASS
Blogger (Easy to spell, 7 characters): 2/3 PASS
Ebay (Easy to spell, 4 characters): 2/3 PASS
Amazon (Easy to spell, 6 characters, plain language): 3/3 PASS
Flickr (5 characters): 1/3 FAIL

This is a somewhat cherry picked list, but most of remaining top sites by traffic are either abbreviations (MSN, AOL) or similarly compliant sites (live.com, photobucket, etc…). We find only one site - flickr - that doesn’t meet these criteria for consumer-facing name success.

We can speculate about why this is, but I would suggest that the obvious answer is likely the right one, as Occam would say. If consumers can’t remember, recognize or spell your name, they are unlikely to get to your site via direct, type-in traffic. That leaves you with SEO, SEM and other indirect methods for drawing in users, all of which are important, but without that initial primary funnel you may struggle. To pick on Charles (because I know he can take it), iminlikewithyou is not a good consumer-facing name. It’s 15 characters, is plain language, but includes a word with an apostrophe, so it only partially passes the spell test. Really good product, bad name.

We can draw some conclusions from Flickr’s success, or we can just say it’s the exception that proves the rule. Flickr built its audience largely of “net natives” who quickly adopted the “missing e” as the next creative web naming convention (sort of like ____ster became earlier), and we’ve soon lots of similarly-spelled “Web 2.0″ company names. In fairness, a lot of this is driven by domain squatters taking many of the plain language names. But in the absence of plain language, I would argue that your new company’s name should be short and easy to spell, even if it’s meaningless (worked pretty well for Google). Sure, the tech-saavy crowd may figure out del.icio.us but will your parents or your friends who aren’t “webheads”? If you are comfortable building a big, successful business out of just us (it can be done), by all means. But if you are going for mainstream…

Ultimately, if you are being thoughtful about your core site, service or application, you are carefully instrumenting your processes (registration, sign-on, setup, etc…) to minimize the waterfall of dropped users and are being diligent about removing friction to lower bounce rate and registration failure. Don’t start out on the wrong foot with a name that won’t stay with potential users. Path101? Good. Xoopit? Well…

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Posted in Uncategorized   Tagged: aol, Blogger, facebook, Flickr, Google, MySpace, Photobucket, startup names, Startups, YouTube   

by fiveyearstoolate at November 20, 2008 11:59 PM

Master of 500 Hats, Dave McLure

The Secret History of Silicon Valley: Thu 11/20 Brown Bag Lunch @ Computer History Museum (Mt View)

BlankSteve Blank is a pretty sharp guy, and one of the best folks in the valley on technology marketing.  He teaches at both Stanford and Haas/Berkeley, and besides being an academic he's been involved in several startups and actually knows his shit.  His book "The Four Steps to the Epiphany" and his presentation on "Customer Development Methodology" are must reads for tech entrepreneurs.

Next Thursday, November 20th, Steve will be giving a lunchtime talk at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View on the Secret History of Silicon Valley.  You can check out a previous video of his talk below:

Here's his Customer Development Methodology preso on SlideShare:

by Dave at November 20, 2008 11:53 PM

Michael Feinstein

Just focus on what you can control

A lot of people (including me) are really depressed by the constantly declining stock market.  For some businesses, it does have an impact.  If you are trying to raise money, the freefall in the public markets can make it difficult.  Investors use the public market as a barometer.  New commitments are measured against the public market valuations.  If those keep heading down, a new deal can look too expensive.  It's also tough trying to raise money for a new fund as many institutional investors base their asset allocation decisions on the value of their public market holdings.

VCs and private equity investors who have funds committed have the capital to invest, but at what price?  That certainly makes later stage deals very hard to price.  Early stage deals are usually done at more or less the same price, regardless of market conditions.  But, it's difficult to know what type of businesses will be able to build some initial revenue traction when overall spending is down.

As an entrepreneur, you have to focus on what you can control.  If you need to raise money, figure out how to stretch your current cash as much as possible.  Make sure you can show potential investors as much revenue traction as possible.  Hopefully, your existing investors are willing to carry the company if new investors won't commit.  Make sure your monthly burn rate is absolutely as low as possible so you can make this burden a bit lighter for your investors.

If you have some money in the bank, don't be complacent.  Cut your spending down to push out your 'out of cash date' as far out as possible.  Focus your efforts on generating revenue and reducing the risk in your business.  Cut out non-critical projects and marketing efforts.  It may be difficult to cut staff, but you need to get rid of exta headcount in order to give the remaining employees the best chance of success.  And, most importantly, act NOW.  Don't wait for your cash balance to dwindle or your investors to get upset.  Be proactive.  Every extra dollar you save by acting quickly is money you can spend building some value.

Don't fall into the trap of avoiding expense cuts because "if things turn around, we'll be glad we kept these resources around".  I'll take the risk of having to re-hire new people vs. the risk overspending.  Once that money is gone, it's gone for good.  On the other hand, nothing reinvigorates a company coming out of tough times like hiring a few new people.

I may come across as being panicked.  I'm actually not.  I think that things will be tough for a long time, but that doesn't mean that there are no opportunities.  The opportunities will go to the swift and the lean.  Make sure that you're one of them.

November 20, 2008 10:52 PM

Baris Karadogan

GM Puts Bailout Banner Ads on Yahoo

Yesterday, I saw a GM banner somewhere on Yahoo finance that said how good and necessary the Auto Industry Bailout would be for America.  I wish I thought to hit PrntScrn so I could show you the ad.

But do you all see how ridiculous this is?

GM has a problem selling cars, so it uses its marketing spend not to sell more cars but the convince people of the bailout.

Does that behavior, simply show why they got into trouble in the first place?

by baris at November 20, 2008 09:29 PM

Web 2.0 Summit Day One

The Web 2.0 Summit started today.  If there was one word to describe the overall atmosphere and mood is that it was 'muted.'  Despite the new president, the mood lacked the spark and feeling of being part of something big.  It was definitely there two years ago.  That was then, this is now.  We'll see how the rest of it goes.

I heard one good stat.  Even though the iPhone is only 5% of the smartphone market, it represents 74% of the mobile web traffic.  That's an eye-popping number.  Once again proof that if you design something well, like the UI of the web surfing experience, people will use it.  Welcome to the design era of technology.  AT&T must be very happy with its deal and the data revenues its getting as a result.

Also, Mary Meeker gave her state of the internet presentation.  Lots of good data in there.  Whou would think that Skype is about to become the world's largest carrier?  You can get it here

by baris at November 20, 2008 08:58 PM

Bijan Sabet

“French Taunter” I’ve always loved this scene...



“French Taunter”

I’ve always loved this scene from the Monty Python & the Holy Grail. It’s a bit of a contrast to my morning tweet about the beauty of the french language.

:)

November 20, 2008 07:34 PM

Maximilian Bleyleben

Partech and the fate of the transatlantic investor

Useurope3_2There was some blog buzz in recent days about the announcement that the European partners of transatlantic VC firm Partech International are splitting from their US partners.  This follows last year's creation of Balderton Capital by Benchmark Europe's partners, and has precipitated a debate on whether it makes sense for VCs to invest in both the US and Europe from a single partnership.

It started with a French press release, followed by Mike Butcher's comment on TechCrunch UK here, picked up on the HEC blog here.  According to an anonymous VC who contacted Butcher, the split proves that the idea of a US/European VC "does not work" due to lack of synergies between companies and potentially mismatched returns cycles.  He does acknowledge that more synergies are possible in later-stage investing. 

This is an important debate, and one where I have a strong view, since our investment model owes part of its success to exploiting the benefits of a single fund investing across the US and Europe.  Thanks to continuing globalisation and -- in particular -- the advance of SaaS and cloud computing, national boundaries matter less and less for tech companies.  As a result, the need for effective cross-border investing will continue to grow.

A lot of funds have failed to make this model work.  In my view, the most common reasons are: (a) separate funds for Europe and the US (with different partners owning the economics of each fund), which makes true cooperation difficult; and (b) insufficient focus on exploiting synergy and arbitrage opportunities between the US and Europe.  Let me explain. 

Based on our eight years' experience investing across Europe and the US, the key factors to make this model successful are (in no particular order):

  1. Invest from a single fund, in which all the investment professionals have equivalent economic interest.  This ensures everyone has the same incentive to support portfolio companies from either region, and everyone has a keen interest in making the right investment decisions in either region.
  2. Make every effort to run a single, unified team with strong agreement on the investment strategy (allowing for some regional differences).  This is hard to do, but not impossible.  It requires weekly meetings ideally by video-conference, frequent inter-office visits, regular strategy offsites, a communicative and transparent culture built around collaboration and information-sharing, and a strong investment discipline throughout the team.
  3. Exploit arbitrage opportunities between regions.  The development of new technologies and business models can occur anywhere first, for example, wireless technologies in Europe, or SaaS business models in the US.  By gaining early experience of these innovations wherever they occur, you can gain a first-mover advantage as an investor in the other territory.
  4. Hold regular reviews of portfolio company needs and how to help them with operational issues in either territory.  Make sure that whichever investment professional is best placed to help (with executive recruitment, biz dev introductions, market entry strategy, etc) makes time to do so.

For entrepreneurs that have global ambition and a global market opportunity, a transatlantic investor can prove invaluable.  An ability to combine US best practices in business models (eg, sales tactics) with European cultural sensitivities is often the best way to make European companies a global success without breaking the business.   And in a weak dollar environment with the US in recession, an ability to get help expanding into Europe can be a life-saver for a US growth company.

At Kennet we have applied this approach with some success, supporting European companies like Kapow, Cramer (now part of Amdocs), Volantis, TradingPartners, Clearswift, Consul (now part of IBM), FRSGlobal and Exony as they crack the US market, and US companies like Daptiv, MedeFinance and NetPro as they expand their international presence including Europe.

As for the potential cyclical divergence of returns between US and European investments, these might be a welcome diversification for both the managers and investors in transatlantic funds.  Alas, the health of the exit markets for VC-backed companies (IPO venues, trade acquirers) are increasingly correlated, so returns cycles are likely to keep converging.

Image source: www.radicalcartography.net, with thanks.

by maxbley at November 20, 2008 05:11 PM

Survival Kit for Growth Companies

Medicaid-budget-cuts We’ve seen a lot of advice flying around on how to prepare for a recession, but most of it is targeted either at large companies or at VC-backed businesses (eg, the now-notorious Sequoia presentation). 

But most companies are neither.  They are the thousands of growth companies that are profitable or close to it, and who continue to grow faster than their markets.  For them, weathering the downturn is about striking the right balance -– planning for survival without sacrificing the growth opportunity.

Below is a summary of what I’m telling my portfolio companies, based on our experience with past recessions and taking into account the particulars of this downturn.  As always, your comments are welcome.

Your New Budget

Write a revenue budget for 2009 that aims for modest growth (20% if you’re used to 50%, 15% if 40%, etc), and a cost budget for 0% growth.  This won’t be enough (see below), but it’s a start.

Lay-offs Cut personnel costs.  Cut deep enough to remain cash-flow positive even if 2009 growth is anemic.  If revenue growth turns out to be higher, you can start recruiting again mid-year and you’ll benefit from a better pool of candidates.

Caveat: Cutting deeply the first time you do it is the best way to preserve leadership credibility.  Making multiple successive cuts destroys confidence in management and leads to departures of good employees.  Many of you will have made one cut already, which wasn’t deep enough, so try to make the second the last, and say so.


Freeze general & administrative expenses, then go through them with a fine-tooth comb and cut some more.  You can always travel less (or less comfortably), use Skype,  postpone seminars, push back on lawyers’ fees, etc.  This is is mostly symbolic if you’re already quite lean, but it puts everyone in cost-conscious mode, which is critical.

Cut discretionary marketing spend and re-focus on online lead generation and performance-based advertising – anything that drives immediate sales.  Your brand will survive 6 months out of the limelight of TV ads.  The hard part is working out which marketing activity to cut –- knowing your conversion metrics by channel is key.

Review variable pay schemes to make sure they are both realistic for the low-growth scenario AND still incentivise growth.  You should still aim to outgrow your broader market, even in a downturn.  Your best people need to be incentivised to achieve this.

However: Avoid an across-the-board reduction in executive pay.  You may think this has powerful symbolic value in front of employees fearful of losing their jobs, but it makes resignations inevitable in an unpredictable way.  Better to reduce aggregate executive pay by letting a few execs go and giving the remainder bigger jobs –- which can be highly motivating.


Business Strategy

Analyse the profitability of your business by product, by customer, and by business line.  Eliminate those that are not contributing positively to your central overheads; consider eliminating the least profitable 10-20%.  There is no room for marginal clients (but you all have them!).

Important: Continue investing in activities that improve your efficiency or increase sales, whether it’s technology development to automate the backoffice, or consultants that increase your sales productivity.


Pause or stop skunk works and other experiments with new product ideas or business lines.  You can always revisit these later.  Consider parking that expansion plan for China for a couple of quarters.

Reposition your product/service offering.  Every pitch to your customers needs to be about saving them money, about solving their problems  caused by the recession.  Quantify the quick ROI.  If you’re very sure of your ability to deliver cash value to clients, consider risk-sharing contracts where some of your fees are variable.

Increase your share of markets where your competition is weakest.  Many companies will disappear in the coming year; try to predict which ones and focus on those territories or segments.

Focus Focus, focus, focus – this is the time to be doubly ruthless in getting management to prioritise the projects and tasks that affect the business in the short to medium term.

Cash Management

Manage cash collection tightly.  Your clients will stretch payments and your suppliers will push you hard to collect early.  You have no choice but to do the same to them.

Look for creative financing options to improve your working capital: sale & leaseback of equipment or property, receivables financing, government grants, bank financing (to the extent available).

The Human Factor

Sesame Talk, listen, connect Most important, talk openly and honestly to your managers and your employees!  The most damaging effect we see in recessions is a demoralising split between senior management in crisis mode, and everyone else wondering what they’re up to.  Well-run companies can pull through if everyone is motivated to do it, and if management appears to be in control.  It is the CEO’s role to listen and to lead, in good times and bad.

by maxbley at November 20, 2008 05:05 PM

Ed Sim

Cloud computing for SMBs

Cloud this, Cloud that - the word cloud is clearly an overhyped word and reminds me of the beginning of the hype around hosted models and ASPs (application service providers) in the late 90s and the term SAAS today.  Anyway, as I look at announcement after announcement released about cloud computing platforms, one thing is pretty clear to me from an investment perspective.  First, I am not going to invest in the next hot cloud computing infrastructure service that will compete against Amazon, Rackspace, Microsoft, and every other large tech vendor in the world.  This is suicide and far from capital efficient.  Secondly, while everyone looks in the consumer space, I want to look at how software companies can deploy new enterprise-based applications in the cloud, particularly for small/medium sized businesses.  In other words, show me the arms merchants with a recurring revenue model and frictionless sale and I will definitely be interested.

Some of the companies that fit this parameter include Rightscale (founded by Thorsten von Eicken, a cofounder of former portfolio company GoToMyPC) and one that I am looking at in the email archiving and compliance space which has a number of OEM partners reselling its service. Rightscale is an on-ramp to Amazon EC2 and other clouds and provides automate systems management.  It kind of reminds me of a next generation Tivoli or Openview.  The beauty is that the whole sales cycle is quite frictionless and all web-based which means an oppotunity to scale quickly.  There are a number of other recent players I have seen including one for BI in the cloud (not exactly sure what the killer app here is yet) and many others.  Of course the trick here is not to get enamored with the word "cloud" but to really understand the business problem that is being solved and why leveraging a cloud computing platform offers better economics, scale, and competitive advantages.  As I dig deeper into some of these companies, it is clear to me that software purpose-built from the ground up to live in a cloud has a huge advantage since it is hard to retrofit off-the-shelf software to leverage all of the benefits offered by Amazon, Rackspace, and the like.  Secondly, many of the better companies have built some slick tools and services to solve difficult problems like how to make customers feel like they have their own privated, dedicated systems while still keeping costs low.  Finally, from a go-to-market perspective, a number of the companies I have spoken with have not gotten the question of whether or not they could scale as they quickly point to their backend provider and move to the next objection.  So, if you have an application targeted at the SMB market that is taking advantage of cloud economics, please feel free to contact me.

by Ed Sim at November 20, 2008 04:27 PM

Mark Davis

Fred Destin

Joe Cohen blogging his way to a better ticket

When my colleague Sonali de Rycker and I funded Joe Cohen to start Seatwave, we thought the guy was a hard worker.  Little did we know that he was an attention-seeking slacker.  Hell, he even started a blog now, All-Access.  Whatever next, hiring a PA ?

You can read our MVP (aka Mr Capital Efficiency) musing on the ticketing and the live event industry, if you are so inclined.  Showing true bipartisanship despite being a Cleveland Republican, Mr Cohen today comments on the deal between Viagogo and Madonna, and why the Resale Rights Society is quite conflicted in its attack of the deal in the Financial Times. 

Interesting stuff for all of us interested in the continued migration of value from recorded to live, the inexorable rise of online marketplaces, self-regulation, consumer protection and the future of ticketing.  Happy reading.

<--- Trust Me, these Golden Circle Tickets are Real !

by FredDestin at November 20, 2008 01:42 PM

Bijan Sabet

Stolen Shoes & a Rifle - Blitzen Trapper The new album Furr...



Stolen Shoes & a Rifle - Blitzen Trapper

The new album Furr came out a few months ago. I just got around to listening to it this weekend. And if you like this song then you are going to really like this record.

November 20, 2008 12:00 PM

Fred Wilson

Credit Crisis Slide Contest

Slideshare is doing a contest to pick the top credit contest slideshow. There are a bunch of good ones. Here's my two favorites.

Slideshare is doing a contest to pick the top credit contest slideshow. There are a bunch of good ones. Here's my two favorites. Creditcrisis 30slides Final View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: capitalism mortgage) Credit Crisis to Collaborative...

by Fred at November 20, 2008 11:49 AM

Paul Kedrosky

Negative News Flow Peaks Late

As the cascade of devastatingly awful economic news grows in volume, it’s worth reminding yourself that negative news flow is a lagging indicator. We are hearing about what has happened, in other words, not what will happen in the coming weeks and months -- and that has been awful (to the tenth or so power).

news-trends

Now, does that mean that the market has discounted all the badness out there? Of course not. But things will improve on the economic ground, or least stabilize, long before it shows up in the headlines. In the interim, expect the pace of layoff news to spike much, much higher.

by pk at November 20, 2008 10:54 AM

Sachi Gahan

Microblogging: Second Chance

After blogging previously about my inability to see the utility of a microblogging service such as Twitter ... I've changed my mind to the point that I'm willing to make a good go of it, and really try it out.

Not sure if I am going to continue to publish my Twitter feed on this blog, so if you're interested, you may want to officially "follow" me on Twitter now.  My Twitter name is advencap.

What changed my mind?

  1. Inability to type as quickly as I once did, thanks to an elbow injury suffered this week (separate blog post later).  The 140 character limit is very appealing, at least for now.
  2. Lance Armstrong's Twitter.  Twitter name: lancearmstrong  It's really him (not a PR professional), it's cool to read about his day to day life as he juggles his Foundation work and his comeback on the Tour, and great motivation when I'm just sitting around being lazy.
  3. The fact that I can link all of my status updates to one source, that is, Twitter now updates my Facebook status automatically.

On a totally separate note: yes, the format and design of Class V has been altered a bit.  Still a work in progress, although the aforementioned elbow injury may put future changes on hold for a while.  But suggestions always welcome!

by Class V at November 20, 2008 05:50 AM

Matt McCall

Fifteen Year Cycle

As the bad news keeps pouring in, a lot of people are wondering what we can expect in the coming years. Additionally, everyone is trying to figure out what hope exists. Well, I'll give two thoughts on this (briefly).

First, the world of technology is driven by two factors: the laws of exponentials and the Black Swan. Progress does not occur linearly but exponentially. We can expect to see changes the magnitude of the past 100 years in just the next 20 years. This means a lot of people are going to a) be really busy and b) be dramatically better off. These changes will come from places you can't predict (Black Swans). Market crashes and negative developments are not the only unexpected six sigma events.

Second, markets run in roughly 7 years cycles and technology in 15 year waves. Vacuum tubes to main frames to mini-computers (DEC) to PC's (Apple/Microsoft) to the Internet. The next wave, then, should start in 2010-11 and hit full force in 2015-16. Many in the business (us, Kleiner, etc) feel this will be in Cleantech. The energy market is 10-20x the IT market. We are not talking about billion dollar markets but trillion dollar ones. There will be a lot of casualties but some enormous wins.

So, there us no doubt that life is really brutal today. But, prepare and get ready for enormous, explosive market opportunities. It's going to be mindblowing.

So, I stick my neck out again typing on my small iPhone. I declared the old venture cycle dead last June. I am declaring the the next cycle, even bigger than the former, will kick in during 2010 with foundations forming by the end of next year. I also believe we will see 30-40% of remaining venture firms will not survive to see this through (food for another post)...

by mbmccall at November 20, 2008 04:41 AM